Genetic liability to psoriasis predicts severe disease outcomes (2025)

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Jake R Saklatvala, View ORCID ProfileSamuel Lessard, Maris Teder-Laving, Laurent F Thomas, Ravi Ramessur, View ORCID ProfileBjørn Olav Åsvold, Anne Barton, David Baudry, View ORCID ProfileJohn Bowes, Ben Brumpton, Vinod Chandran, Clément Chatelain, Emanuele de Rinaldis, James T Elder, David Ellinghaus, John Foerster, View ORCID ProfileAndre Franke, Dafna D Gladman, Wayne Gulliver, Ulrike Hüffmeier, Laura Huilaja, Kristian Hveem, Shameer Khader, Külli Kingo, Katherine Klinger, Sulev Kõks, Wilson Liao, Rajan P Nair, Joanne Nititham, Proton Rahman, View ORCID ProfileAndré Reis, Philip E Stuart, Kaisa Tasanen, Tanel Traks, Lam C Tsoi, Steffen Uebe, Katie Watts, BSTOP study group, Jonathan N Barker, Satveer K Mahil, View ORCID ProfileSinéad M Langan, FinnGen, Estonian Biobank research team, Sara J Brown, Mari Løset, Lavinia Paternoster, Nick Dand, Catherine H Smith, Michael A Simpson

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.03.04.25323079

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Abstract

Background Psoriasis is a common inflammatory skin disease with heterogeneous presentation. Up to 30% of individuals have severe disease with a greater surface area of skin involvement, co-morbidity burden and impact on quality of life. Prognostic biomarkers of psoriasis severity could improve allocation of clinical resources and enable earlier intervention to prevent disease progression, and a genetic biomarker would be cost-effective, stable over time, and unaffected by treatment or comorbidity.

Methods Psoriasis severity was studied in four European population-based biobanks and classified based on level of clinical intervention received, with criteria for severe disease including hospitalisation due to psoriasis, use of systemic immunomodulating therapy or phototherapy. Common genetic variants, polygenic risk scores and traditional epidemiological risk factors were tested for association with severe psoriasis in each of the constituent biobanks and combined through meta-analysis. The distribution of psoriasis polygenic risk was also evaluated in a cohort of 4 151 participants in the UK-based severe psoriasis registry, BSTOP.

Results In the population-based datasets, 9 738 of 44 904 individuals with psoriasis (21.7%) were classified as having severe disease. Genetic variants within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) and the TNIP1 and IL12B psoriasis susceptibility loci were associated with severe disease at genome-wide significance (P<5.0×10−8). Furthermore, a strong positive correlation was observed between psoriasis susceptibility and severity effect sizes across all psoriasis susceptibility loci. An individual’s genetic liability to psoriasis as measured with a polygenic risk score (PRS) strongly associated with disease severity, with a magnitude of effect comparable to established severity risk factors such as obesity and smoking. The top 5% of psoriasis cases by genetic liability to psoriasis were 1.23-to-2.00 times as likely than the average psoriasis case to have severe disease. Psoriasis cases in the BSTOP severe disease registry were 3.10-fold enriched for a PRS that exceeded the 95th percentile established among UK Biobank psoriasis cases.

Conclusions The psoriasis susceptibility PRS demonstrates utility, and may be more effective than established epidemiological factors, as a stratification tool to identify those individuals that are at greatest risk of severe disease and may benefit most from early intervention.

Competing Interest Statement

CHS is an investigator on EC-IMI funded consortia with multiple industry partners (see HIPPOCRATES-IMI.eu and BIOMAP-IMI.eu); departmental research funding from Sanger as part of Open Targets programme, Astrazeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim.SJB has received research funding (but no personal financial benefits) from the Wellcome Trust (senior research fellowship ref 220875/Z/20/Z), UKRI, Medical Research Council, Rosetrees Trust, Stoneygates Trust, British Skin Foundation, Charles Wolfson Charitable Trust, anonymous donations from people with eczema, Unilever, Pfizer, Abbvie, Sosei-Heptares, Janssen, European Lead Factory (multiple industry partners) and the BIOMAP consortium (EC-IMI project ref 821511).SL, CC, SK, EdR, KK are Sanofi employees and may hold shares and/or stock options in the company.SKM reports departmental income from AbbVie, Almirall, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Leo, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi, and UCB, outside the submitted work.DDG has received grants and/or consulting fees from AbbVie, Amgen, BMS, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer and UCB.

Funding Statement

MAS is funded by Leo Foundation.CHS is supported by a NIHR Senior Investigator Award.ML is funded by grants from the Liaison Committee for Education, Research and Innovation in Central Norway and the Joint Research Committee between St Olavs Hospital and the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, NTNU.LP, KW: receive support from the UK Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00032/01).SJB has received research funding (but no personal financial benefits) from the Wellcome Trust (senior research fellowship ref 220875/Z/20/Z), UKRI, Medical Research Council, Rosetrees Trust, Stoneygates Trust, British Skin Foundation, Charles Wolfson Charitable Trust, anonymous donations from people with eczema, Unilever, Pfizer, Abbvie, Sosei-Heptares, Janssen, European Lead Factory (multiple industry partners) and the BIOMAP consortium (EC-IMI project ref 821511).SKM is funded by a NIHR Advanced Fellowship (NIHR302258).VC is supported by a clinician scientist salary award from the department of medicine, University of Toronto.This work was supported by the Estonian Research Council grants PRG1911 and TK (TK214).

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

The Estonian Council of Bioethics and Human Research gave ethical approval for this work (1.1-12/624). As required by the Estonian Human Genes Research Act, all participants joining the Estonian Biobank have signed an informed consent form to ensure voluntary and informed participation.The Coordinating Ethics Committee of the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa (HUS) approved the FinnGen study protocol Nr HUS/990/2017. The FinnGen study is approved by Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (permit numbers: THL/2031/6.02.00/2017, THL/1101/5.05.00/2017, THL/341/6.02.00/2018, THL/2222/6.02.00/2018, THL/283/6.02.00/2019, THL/1721/5.05.00/2019, THL/1524/5.05.00/2020, and THL/2364/14.02/2020), Digital and population data service agency (permit numbers: VRK43431/2017-3, VRK/6909/2018-3, VRK/4415/2019-3), the Social Insurance Institution (permit numbers: KELA 58/522/2017, KELA 131/522/2018, KELA 70/522/2019, KELA 98/522/2019, KELA 138/522/2019, KELA 2/522/2020, KELA 16/522/2020 and Statistics Finland (permit numbers: TK-53-1041-17 and TK-53-90-20).The Norwegian Data Protection Authority and the Regional Committee for Medical and Health Research Ethics in Central Norway (REK Reference number 27420) gave ethical approval for this work.The National Health Service National Research Ethics Service (ref. 11/NW/0382) gave ethical approval for this work.The London-Westminster Research Ethics Committee [previously called South East London REC 2 when originally approved in 2011], reference 11/H0802/7) gave ethical approval for this work.

I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.

Yes

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

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I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.

Yes

Footnotes

  • 35 Members are listed in acknowledgements.

  • 37 Full list of FinnGen contributors listed in Supplementary.

  • * Joint second authors

  • ^ Joint senior authors

  • List of abbreviations

    BMI
    body mass index
    BSA
    Body surface area
    BSTOP
    Biomarkers and Stratification To Optimise outcomes in Psoriasis
    EHR
    electronic health record
    GWAS
    Genome-wide association study
    GWS
    Genome-wide significant
    HUNT
    Trøndelag Health Study
    LD
    linkage equilibrium
    OR
    odds ratio
    PRS
    polygenic risk score
  • Copyright

    The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

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